RISK 3.1

False or Misleading Information

Probability Distribution by Severity Level (2025-2030)

15% No Harm
15% Minor
20% Limited
20% Moderate
18% Significant
12% Catastrophic
Probability Breakdown
Most Likely Outcomes:
Limited to Moderate (40%)
Severe Outcomes (Sig. + Cat.):
30% combined
Chance of Any Harm:
85%
No Harm: No negative impacts expected
Minor: Small-scale, limited impacts
Limited: Specific groups/sectors affected
Moderate: Broader societal implications
Significant: Large populations affected
Catastrophic: Systemic/irreversible damage

Key Insights

• High baseline risk: Only 15% probability of no harm occurring over the 5-year period

• Center-weighted distribution: 40% probability concentrated in Limited-Moderate severity range

• Non-negligible tail risk: 30% chance of Significant or Catastrophic outcomes

• Most probable outcome: Limited to Moderate impacts affecting specific sectors or having broader societal implications