AI Risk Assessment Survey

Probability Allocation Method - Delphi Round 1

RISK 3.1

False or Misleading Information

AI systems generating, amplifying, or failing to identify false or misleading information across various domains, potentially affecting decision-making processes and public understanding.

Instructions

Allocate 100% probability across the severity levels below, indicating the chance this risk will result in exactly that level of harm over the next 5 years (2025-2030). All percentages must sum to exactly 100%.

⚠️ Validation Issue: All values sum to 100%!
No harmful impacts
15%
No measurable negative impacts from this risk over the assessment period
Minor impacts
15%
Small-scale impacts affecting limited populations, easily managed with existing resources
Limited impacts
20%
Notable impacts on specific groups, sectors, or regions requiring targeted interventions
Moderate impacts
20%
Substantial negative impacts with broader societal implications requiring coordinated response
Significant impacts
18%
Severe impacts affecting large populations, requiring major policy or technological changes
Catastrophic impacts
12%
Extreme impacts with potentially irreversible consequences at societal or global scale
Your Assessment Summary
Based on your assessment, false or misleading information is most likely to result in limited impacts (20% chance). You think there's a 50% chance this risk will cause moderate impacts or worse.
Cumulative Probabilities (at least this severe)
  • 85% chance of minor impacts or worse
  • 70% chance of limited impacts or worse
  • 50% chance of moderate impacts or worse
  • 30% chance of significant impacts or worse
  • 12% chance of catastrophic impacts
Individual Level Probabilities (your allocation)
  • 15% no harmful impacts
  • 15% minor impacts
  • 20% limited impacts
  • 20% moderate impacts
  • 18% significant impacts
  • 12% catastrophic impacts